Welcome to MLB DFS, Money Monday edition. It’s me, Cousin Timmy, and I’m here to keep your Monday nights raw (wrestling fans know). The baseball fun starts with first pitch at 6:40 PM ET, and 3:40 PM PT for me. I’ll be on my third caffeine intake by then and ready to watch my phone light up green during my kid’s soccer practice.
We have a seven-game main slate today with mostly SP4s to choose from on the mound. We have a few new series starting including a battle of big bats between the Blue Jays and Yankees in New York. There were a lot of runs scored on Sunday, let’s hope for a repeat tonight. Ready to win some money? Let’s go!
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Ranger Suarez exploded on the scene last year with a 26% K rate and finished in the top-10 in ground ball rate and hard contact rate. In 106 innings, he had 107 strikeouts while starting 12 games. This southpaw’s ratios were top of the line and I’m excited to see him perform at an elite level this season. I have him everywhere in season-long. The Mets added Starling Marte and Mark Canha to strengthen their lineup in the off-season but they were bottom-10 in multiple categories vs. LHP in 2021.
Another high priced pitcher, Manoah is worth it even in a hitter’s ball-park against the Yankees. Over his final 60 innings of work in 2021, he held opponents to a 21% hard contact rate. The next best on tonight’s slate? Mike Lorenzen at 28%. Manoah had a 27.7% K rate on the season, recording multiple double-digit strikeout games. With guys like Joey Gallo and Kyle Higashioka on the Yankees, Alek should rack up some Ks and cover his 5.5 K prop.
Let’s get real here. Is there anyone else you want at catcher tonight? Realmuto is the priciest backstop and for good reason. He’s got a great matchup vs Taijuan Walker who is not the pitcher everyone hoped he would be a few years ago. Walker has given up 10 HR and surrendered a .328 batting average in 95 AB vs. this Phillies team. Walker gave up 21 HR in his final 15 games of 2021.
If my father-in-law could understand DFS, he’d be happy to see Belt on this list as a huge Giants fan. Belt is cheap considering he bats second in the lineup and is facing Nick Martinez tonight. Martinez has not pitched for an MLB organization since 2017 and when he did, he wasn’t good. However, after pitching well the past few years in Japan he earned a spot in the Padres rotation due to injuries to others. Martinez is a wildcard tonight, but I’m leaning Giants here with the wind blowing out in San Fran.
Lowe has a good shot to lead all 2B in home runs again this season after belting 38 in 2021. The rays have a juicy matchup vs. Paul Blackburn. Blackburn had a .407wOBA and an unimpressive 16.9% K rate vs. LHH in 2021. The Rays might be starting eight lefties! Double digit runs is not out of the question for Tampa and I expect Brandon Lowe to contribute a bunch to that total. His dual eligibility is also a big plus!
Not the sexiest DFS name but we need to save some money somewhere. Joey Wendle is a solid bet tonight vs. Mike Lorenzen who recently said he wants to be a full-time pitcher. Lorenzen is another pitcher who struggles against LHH. He also had an 11% BB rate in 2021 which is the worst among tonight’s starting pitchers. Joey has been bating 6th for Miami and should have some men on base when he comes to the plate.
Did I mention Paul Blackburn struggles vs. LHH? Wander Franco will be a part of a big night for the Rays. There’s been a lot of skepticism about Franco’s potential power, but after tonight, maybe not anymore. If I’m stacking the Rays, which I am, I’m including Wander.
The two-way MVP is not pitching tonight but he will be batting lead-off against Elisser Hernandez who gave up 3.9 HR/9 and had a 26.8% HR/FB ratio vs LHH in 2021, both worst on the slate. The Angels have the highest implied run total tonight as the only team over five. Having Mike Trout hit behind him is only going to increase Ohtani’s ceiling this year and give him plenty of pitches to hit.
How Lowe can we go tonight? Well, at least two Lowes. Texas isn’t on this slate so we can’t get to three, unfortunately. However, these two Lowes should put up enough points to cover three guys tonight. A solid value under $3K, top prospect Josh Lowe has all the tools to be a 20-20 guy and tonight is the night he gets on track to that path. I’ve set the bar pretty high for the Lowes.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
There is some rain in the New York area so keep an eye on the Blue Jays vs Yankees. There are also some gusty winds blowing out in San Francisco which could carry a deep fly ball by Brandon Belt into McCovey Cove. Everywhere else looks like smooth sailing tonight.
Doing Lines In Vegas
This is as close as I’ve got to doing lines in Vegas in over six years, so let’s make it count. I’m going to player props and you guessed it, we are getting pretty Lowe tonight. Brandon Lowe OVER 1.5 total bases at +175 is a steal on DraftKings Sportsbook. I also like Josh Lowe OVER 0.5 total bases at -175.
Good luck tonight and feel free to hit me up @TimmySperos on Twitter with any questions!